2015 Anchorage Area Real Estate 3rd Quarter Report

The Alaska MLS compiles statistical information regarding local real estate sales activity on a monthly basis and makes it available to real estate licensees by the 15th of the following month.  The following is my analysis of Anchorage market statistics through the end of September, 2015 for single-family homes and condominiums.  The information or data used in this publication is copyrighted by AK MLS, Inc. and no portion may be reproduced, redistributed or retransmitted without the express permission of AK MLS, Inc. Further, AK MLS, Inc. does not warrant the accuracy of the information or data contained herein.

Statistics for the first three quarters of 2015 show that we continue to have a very strong Anchorage area single family home sales market in the price range up to $500,000.  There are currently 7.5% less homes for sale this year than last year in the “under $500,000 range” and there’s just 1.4 to 3.2 months of inventory in every category in this price range.  That’s a seller’s market.  The $500,000 to $750,000 range is rather balanced like last year with just over five months of inventory.  With that said, sales in this price range are up 16% over last year.  Above $750,000, it’s a different ballgame…..primarily a buyer’s market with 6% more homes currently for sale above $750,000 than this time last year.   In the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range, there’s currently 10 months of inventory on the market and 17.5 months of inventory above $1,000,000.

The overall picture is that the average sales price year-to-date is up 2.9% over last year.  The number of homes currently for sale on the MLS in the Municipality of Anchorage are listed below, by price range.   These numbers give a another view that average listing prices are moving up.

# Of Single Family Homes Listed For Sale As Of  October 12, 2015

  • 35  homes priced below $200,000 in 2015 vs. 45 in 2014 & 53 in 2013
  • 152 homes priced $200,000 to $300,000 in 2015 vs. 202 in 2014 & 192 in 2013
  • 225 homes priced $300,000 to $400,000 in 2015 vs. 216 in 2014 & 169 in 2013
  • 133 homes priced $400,000 to $500,000 in 2015 vs. 126 in 2014 & 132 in 2013
  • 194 homes priced $500,000 to $1,000,000 in 2015 vs. 171 in 2014 & 172 in 2013
  • 31  homes listed at $1,000,000 or more in 2015 vs. 29 in 2014 & 31 in 2013

The number of homes currently for sale (in all price ranges) is the same as last year (877 vs. 878).  The number of sales is up 7.4%.  The average sale takes place in 45 days at an average price 2.9% above last year.  This tells us that demand is up, even over last year’s  strong market.  The average single family home sales price for the first three quarters of 2015 is $368,948, vs. the 2014 end-of-year average of $358,456 and 2013 end-of-year average of $347,242.  The charts below spell this information out in more detail.September Residential Active Listing Inventory

  • September Residential Sales - Number Of UnitsSeptember Residential Sales - Average Sales PriceSeptember How Much Does A Home In Anchorage Cost TodayThe single family home statistics above indicate that we still have a strong market for Anchorage area single family homes under $750,000.  Just like last year, if you’re in the million dollar plus range, it’s a buyer’s market.  We have one home in our neighborhood that was originally listed at $6,900.000.  The price has been reduced over time due to lack of demand.  It is currently for sale at $2,850,000 even though the owners invested more than $10,000,000 into it.  Click on the Oceanview Homes for Sale page to see the listing report and photos for that home.

    Condominium sales are better than last year.  That’s good news because they’d been lagging behind single-family home sales for several years.  There are currently 320 condominiums for sale vs. 335 at the same point last year…..down 5%.  Inventory for sale is within a very normal range (except for the upper end).  There’s four months or less for sale inventory in most price ranges, until you get above $500,000.  Although inventory is down, the number of sales are up 2% over last year.  They’re averaging 59 days on the market vs. 52 days last year.  Average sales price is $211,496, up 5% from last year’s $201,273.  This is good news for condominiums: Inventory is down and the number of sales and sales prices are up.  They’re just taking a little longer to sell.September Anchorage Condominium - Number Of Units

    September Anchorage Condominium - Average Sales PriceAn item that I continue to watch closely is mortgage interest rates.  Current rates for 30 year fixed rate conventional mortgages are 3.75%.  30 year FHA & VA mortgages are at 3.625%.  Last year at this time, rates were at 4.25% for 30 year conventional loans.  In October, 2013 they were at 4.375% and in 2012 they were at 3.25% for 30 year conventionals.  I foresee rates going higher over the next several years, but I’ve been saying that over the past couple of years as well.  If the Federal Reserve raises rates in December at the FOMC meeting, or early next year as expected, we’ll see mortgage rates increase.  I cannot make any specific rate increase forecast due to the numerous unforeseeable financial, political and world event factors that can impact rates.  It’ll be interesting to see where we’re at this time next year.  This concludes my third quarter analysis.

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