The Alaska MLS compiles statistical information regarding local real estate sales activity on a monthly basis and makes it available to real estate licensees by the 15th of the following month. The following is my analysis of Anchorage market statistics for the first half of this year (through the end of June, 2015) for single-family homes and condominiums. The information or data used in this publication is copyrighted by AK MLS, Inc. and no portion may be reproduced, redistributed or retransmitted without the express permission of AK MLS, Inc. Further, AK MLS, Inc. does not warrant the accuracy of the information or data contained herein.
Statistics for the first half of 2015 show that we have a very strong Anchorage area single family home sales market in the price range up to $500,000. So far this year, the number of homes listed for sale is very similar to last year, but sales are up 9.4% YTD vs. last year. Not only that, the average sales price is up 2.6% over the same period last year. We even have a healthy market in the $500,000-$750,000 range, with only 5.73 months of inventory. That’s down from the past few years. In the $750,000 and higher range, it’s a different ballgame. There’s one year of active inventory for sale in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range and 19 months of active inventory in the $1,000,000+ range. The number of homes currently for sale on the MLS in the Municipality of Anchorage are listed below, by price range.
# Of Muni of Anch Single Family Homes Listed As Of The End Of June, 2015
29 homes priced below $200,000 in 2015 vs. 48 in 2014 & 78 in 2013
- 134 homes priced $200,000 to $300,000 in 2015 vs. 173 in 2014 & 191 in 2013
- 179 homes priced $300,000 to $400,000 in 2015 vs. 198 in 2014 & 199 in 2013
- 131 homes priced $400,000 to $500,000 in 2015 vs. 132 in 2014 & 146 in 2013
- 211 homes priced $500,000 to $1,000,000 in 2014 vs. 190 in 2014 & 177 in 2013
- 31 homes listed at $1,000,000 or more in 2015 vs. 23 in 2014 & 27 in 2013
The statistics above show an upward shift in sales prices and buyer demand. A closer look shows that there are currently 18.4% fewer homes listed for sale in the below $400,000 range vs. the same time last year. There’s less than three months of inventory in every price category under $400,000 and only 3.24 months of inventory in the $400,000 to $500,000 range. That’s very indicative of strong demand! The average market time for homes that actually sold so far this year is 50 days, very similar to last year’s 49 day average. As I said earlier, sales are up 9.4% YTD vs. last year.
The average single family home sales price for the first half of 2015 is $368,489 vs. $359,186 for the first half of 2013, up 2.6%. Per MLS statistics, the median sales price through June, 2015 is $330,000 vs. $321,000 for the same period last year. That’s up 2.8%.
The single family home statistics above and below indicate that we currently have a very strong market for Anchorage area single family homes under $500,000. Just like last year, if you’re in the million dollar plus range, it’s a buyer’s market. In last year’s mid-year report I said the most expensive home in the Anchorage area market was priced at $5,800,000. It’s still for sale this year, but currently priced at $2,850,000. That’s less than half of last year’s price and less than 30% of what the sellers spent to build it! This fantastic home is in our neighborhood. Click on the Oceanview Homes for Sale page to see the listing report and photos.
Condominium sales have made an improvement over the same period last year, in which sales had picked up from the year before. There are currently 349 condominiums for sale vs. 318 at the same point last year…..up almost 10%. There’s four months or less for sale inventory in almost all price ranges, except above $400,000. The number of sales are up 3.3% over last year, averaging 60 days on the market vs. 52 days last year. Average sales price is $208,794, up almost 5% over last year’s $199,211. Median sales price YTD is $194,335 vs. last year’s $191,450. That’s up 1.5%. The good news for condominiums is that although inventory is up, it’s still within the normal range. More sales are taking place and prices have gone up (except above $500,000). That’s good news for the condominium market!
The item that I continue to watch closely is mortgage interest rates. Last year at the end of June, rates were at 4.25% for 30 year conventional loans and 3.5% for 15 year conventional. In 2013, at the end of June rates were at 4.375% for 30 year conventional loans and 3.5% for 15 year conventional. As of July 1, 2015 rates were at 4.125% for 30 year conventional, 3.375% for 15 year conventional and 3.75% for FHA/VA 30 year fixed. In other words, mid-year rates for conventional 30 year mortgages have dropped 0.125% a year for the past two years. Every year for the past 4-5 years, I’ve said, “I foresee rates increasing over the next year, but will make no specific rate increase forecast due to the numerous unforeseeable financial, political and world event factors that can impact rates.” This is an issue that is just impossible to predict. Therefore, keep an eye on rates if you’re thinking about buying and/or selling. Significant rate increases will have a significant negative effect on the market. I have no intention of ever attempting to predict future rates!
The statistics below are a rather detailed overview of the Anchorage area single family and condominium real estate market.