The Alaska MLS compiles statistical information regarding local real estate sales activity on a monthly basis and makes it available to real estate licensees by the 15th of the following month. The following is my analysis of Anchorage market statistics through the end of September, 2014 for single-family homes and condominiums. The information or data used in this publication is copyrighted by AK MLS, Inc. and no portion may be reproduced, redistributed or retransmitted without the express permission of AK MLS, Inc. Further, AK MLS, Inc. does not warrant the accuracy of the information or data contained herein.
Statistics for the first three quarters of 2014 show that we continue to have a strong Anchorage area single family home sales market in the price range up to $500,000. Although, there are currently 8% more homes for sale this year than last year in the “under $500,000 range”, there is still only 1.5 to 3.5 months of inventory in every category in this price range. That’s a seller’s market. The $500,000 to $750,000 range is rather balanced with five months of inventory. Above $750,000, it’s a different ballgame…..primarily a buyer’s market. There are currently 12% less homes for sale above $750,000 than this time last year, but still 12 months of inventory in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range and 18 months of inventory above $1,000,000. Overall, current for sale inventory is up around 5% from the same period last year, but the average sales price year-to-date is also up 4.5% over the same period last year. The number of homes currently for sale on the MLS in the Municipality of Anchorage are listed below, by price range.
# Of Single Family Homes Listed For Sale As Of The End Of October 8, 2014
45 homes priced below $200,000 in 2014 vs. 53 in 2013
- 202 homes priced between $200,000 and $300,000 in 2014 vs. 192 in 2013
- 216 homes priced between $300,000 and $400,000 in 2014 vs. 169 in 2013
- 126 homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000 in 2014 vs. 132 in 2013
- 171 homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 in 2014 vs. 172 in 2013
- 29 homes listed at $1,000,000 or more in 2014 vs. 31 in 2013
The average market time for homes that actually sold so far this year is 44 days, down 4% from last year’s 46 day average. 2014 1st quarter inventory was down almost 8% to last year. 2nd quarter inventory was only down 1% and 3rd quarter inventory was up 5% to the same period last year. The number of single family homes sold in the first three quarters of 2014 is down just over 8% vs. the same period last year. Although inventory is up 5% and sales are down 8% year-to-date compared to last year, the average sale takes place in 44 days at an average price 4.5% above last year. We’re seeing a shift of supply doing a better job of meeting demand, but it’s still a seller’s market under $500,000. The average single family home sales price for the first three quarters of 2014 is $362,042 vs. $346,332 for the first three quarters of 2013, up just over 4.5%. Median sales price data can be a better reflection of market appreciation. Per MLS statistics, the median sales price through September, 2014 is $330,000 vs. $322,500 for the same period last year. That’s up 2.3%. I suspect we’ll end the year a little better than this.
The single family home statistics above indicate that we still have a strong, normal market for Anchorage area single family homes under $750,000. Just like last year, if you’re in the million dollar plus range, it’s a buyer’s market. The most expensive home on the local market is currently priced at $4,800,000. It’s in our neighborhood. Click on the Oceanview Homes for Sale page to see the listing report and photos.
Condominium sales are a little better than last year. There are currently 335 condominiums for sale vs. 304 at the same point last year…..up 10%. There’s four months or less for sale inventory in most price ranges, until you get above $400,000. The number of sales are up 5% over last year, averaging 52 days on the market vs. 60 days last year. Average sales price is $201,220, down slightly from last year’s $203,888. Median sales price information is not available. The good news for condominiums is that although inventory is up, it’s still within the normal range (except for the upper end) and sales are occurring quicker. With that said, the average sales price is down 1%.
An item that I continue to watch closely is mortgage interest rates. Last year at the end of September, rates were at 4.375% for 30 year conventional loans. As of October 1, 2014 rates were at 4.25% for 30 year conventionals. At that time in 2012 they were actually at 3.25%. I foresee rates going higher over the next several years, but short term…..who knows. I cannot make any specific rate increase forecast due to the numerous unforeseeable financial, political and world event factors that can impact rates. It’ll be interesting to see where we’re at come year-end.