November 2013 Anchorage Area Real Estate Market Activity Update


The Alaska MLS compiles statistical information regarding local real estate sales activity on a monthly basis and makes it available to real estate licensees by the 15th of the following month. Therefore, you should see monthly market updates on this site by the middle of following month.

The following is my quick analysis of Anchorage market statistics through November, 2013 for single-family homes only. View my quarterly reports for condominium sales and additional local market information. The information or data used in this publication is copyrighted by AK MLS, Inc. and no portion may be reproduced, redistributed or retransmitted without the express permission of AK MLS, Inc. Further, AK MLS, Inc. does not warrant the accuracy of the information or data contained herein.

First, a little history. Per our normal seasonal reduction, the number of Anchorage area homes listed for sale in the MLS starting dropping in September, 2012 from last year’s August high, and continued dropping every month until hitting the seasonal low in February, 2013. Just like clockwork, 2013 single family home for sale inventory hit its high again in August, up 77% from February’s low. It began its seasonal drop again in September, and as of the end of November was down 30% from August’s high. It’s interesting to note that ‘for sale inventory’ was lower every month last year compared to the same month in 2011. We’ve continued that trend in 2013 with lower inventory (compared to the same month in 2012) every month through November, 2013, which is down 5.7% in inventory from November, 2012. We currently have the lowest number of ‘single-family homes’ listed for sale in the MLS since November, 2005. With that said, the number of ‘single family home’ sales listed in the MLS that CLOSED in November was higher this year than any November sales number since 2005. Just like 10 out of 12 months last year, closed sales are up 10 out of 11 months this year vs. 2012. Again, it’s the highest number of MLS listed sales for the first 11 months of the year since 2006. The number of pending sales at the end of November dropped from October, so we should see a drop in closed sales in December. The average sales price year-to-date of $346,222 is up 2.65% to last year, reflecting a mild upward trend. Median sales price is $320,000, up 3.2% from the same time period last year. Homes sold at an average of 47 days on the market, 20% faster than the same period last year. Right now, there is three months or less of homes-for-sale inventory in every price range under $500,000! This meets the definition of a very strong, local market with low inventory. Even in the $500,000 to $750,000 range there’s just 3.3 months of inventory. It’s a very different market above $750,000 with 16 months of inventory in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range. The higher the price, the more of a buyer’s market it becomes! There are currently 25 homes for sale in the Anchorage area priced above $1,000,000. 11 homes in this range have actually sold in the past 12 months, giving us 27 months of inventory!

So, what are all of these numbers telling us? I sound like a broken record, repeating myself every month!!! The short story: Just like all of my other recent reports….Inventory is down and sales are up. That’s all good! As a result, we have a strong single-family home market in the Anchorage area under $500,000. Low mortgage interest rates continue to help drive the local market. Today’s rates are still historically very low at 4.5% for 30 year conventional and 4.25% for 30 year FHA and VA. Keep a close eye on rates if you’re thinking about purchasing a home using a mortgage. Click here to read the mortgage interest rate article I wrote last September. Click on “Links of Interest” on the Menu Bar above to get to current mortgage interest rate links for purchase or refinance. Be aware that the quoted rates are predicated upon top credit scores as well as other factors, and associated fees can vary somewhat from lender to lender.

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